The Market Analysis

The Market Analysis for Cryptocurrencies

In this article, the Cryptocurrencies from Yahoo! Finance is used, and we analyze the current top tech companies' stock prices.

Table of contentens

Symbol Name Symbol Name
BTC-USD Bitcoin USD LTC-USD Litecoin USD
ETH-USD Ethereum USD EOS-USD EOS USD
XRP-USD XRP USD BNB-USD Binance Coin USD
USDT-USD Tether USD XLM-USD Stellar USD
BCH-USD Bitcoin Cash USD TRX-USD TRON USD

The data is collected from a years ago until now.

Collecting data from Yahoo Finance!, and creating moving Averages for 10, 20 and 60 day periods of time.

Displaying today's data only:

Consider BTC-USD for example. We hAve,

Stock Prices Fluctuations

Let's plot the stocks adjusted the closing price for all stock data under study.

The following table shows the Average values for all columns of the Data.

The Moving Average of the Stocks

Let's plot moving Averages for 10, 20 and 60 day periods of time for the top 4 companies with the highest volume on Average.

The Daily Return Average of a Stock

Daily return can be calculated using the percentage change of the adjusted closing price.

The Correlation Between Daily Returns of Different Stocks

First, we need to create a new data frame by reading the Adj Close column from all stock data under study. We hAve,

The returns can be analyzed using the percentage change from the adj Close.

The following graphs show the correlation between different stocks.

Now, we can use the pairplot tool to visualize all.

Nonetheless, the correlation matrix and plot are always convenient to see numerical values for correlations.

Here, darker shades of blue represent a higher correlation.

Let's find the quantile for a stock.

Predicting Future Behaviors

To predict future behaviors, we can implement the Monte Carlo method (also see this [2] and this [3].

Defining a Monte Carlo function fo the Stock price.

Bitcoin USD

The frequencies of different outcomes simulated form a Bell curve. The most likely return is in the middle of the curve. This means there is an equal chance that the actual return will be higher or lower than that value.

See more details about Value at Risk (VaR) [4].


References

  1. Yahoo Finance
  2. Mathematical Foundations of Monte Carlo Methods
  3. Monte Carlo Simulation
  4. An Introduction to Value at Risk (VAR)
  5. Bell Curve